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Baseball Gifts to Award The Men in Your Life
How about an MVP commemorative baseball gift for a keepsake? Or a Stay Cool Sports Towel? What about a Louisville Tpx Youth Equipment Bag? Or for the enthusiastic amateur consider an instructional video such as “A Parent's Guide to Baseball”? There...
Fitness and Exercise For Children
Fitness and exercise are important. We all know that, and had
that lesson drummed into our heads in school. But, how much
attention do we pay to our children when it comes to fitness and
exercise? In our modern day, too many children spend...
My Top Baseball Teams of All Time - Part two (Also in no particular order)
My Top Baseball Teams of All Time
Part two (Also in no particular order)
1955 Brooklyn Dodgers
They won the pennant by 13.5 games.
Scored 857 runs while allowing 650 runs
Finally beat the New York Yankees in
The World Series. They had five...
Perfect Posture For Your Golf Swing (Part 1)
The Perfect Posture For Your Golf Swing (Part 1) You have arrived at your ball on the tee or on the grass. Now: How far over do you bend at your hips? How much do you bend your knees? Where are your arms supposed to be? What about your back...
The Forgotten Game - How I Fell In Love With The Game Of Baseball AGAIN.
The Forgotten game How I Fell In Love With The Game Of Baseball AGAIN. It happens to the best of us. One day we realizes a piece of us is missing. With the things we love it is not as simple as patting your back pocket to make sure you didn't...
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"The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!"
In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.
Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.
If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.
When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).
As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.
Heads is now an even
shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.
The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.
The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 on tails.
At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 (+150 US), for an event where the 'true odds’ of success are 1/1.
As long as he bets at this price (6/4) or any 'value' price, the professional will win in the long run.
Naturally, it is not as easy to assess the 'true odds' in sports events because there are so many variables, however, with experience it can be done, especially if one specializes in particular sports events.
About the Author
The author has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years and helps advise a number of sportsbooks:
Gameday Sportsbook SportingBet VIP Sports Group
amongst others - all of which are leaders in the sports betting and gambling industry.
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